Manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment, exchange rate and oil price: a u.s. state-level time series analysis

This paper investigates the time series properties of U.S. state-level manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment and two economy-wide variables: real effective exchange rate and real oil price. Examining the 1990 to 2005 period, cointegration tests and error-correction models reveal a long run relationship between manufacturing employment and the exchange rate in eleven states, while no evidence of this relationship between non-manufacturing employment and the exchange rate was detected. Additionally, in the vast majority of states, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment appear to have a long-run equilibrium relationship with the real price of oil.

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Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing,Employment ,

Economics,Manufacturing ,