Mevsimsel rasyonel beklentiler yaşam boyu sürekli gelir hipotezinin testi

Üçer aylık frekansta gözlenen tüketim harcamalarında ciddi boyutta mevsimsellik görülmektedir. Osborn (1988) ekonometrik analizden önce mevsimselliği gidermek yerine, tüketicinin fayda fonksiyonundaki parametrelerin mevsimlere göre değişmesine izin vererek söz konusu mevsimselliği modellemeyi tercih etmi

Tüketim fonksiyonu ,

Osborn (1988) modeli ,

mevsimsellik ,

periyodik birim kök ,

periyodik otoregresif modeller ,

Consumption function ,

Osborn (1988) model ,

Quarterly observed consumption expenditures exhibit significant seasonality. Rather than remoing seasonality from data before econometric analysis, Osborn (1988) preferred to model seasonality by allowing parameters of consumer’s utility function to vary with respect to seasons. According to the Osborn (1988), model consumption expenditures should follow periodically integrated autoregression of order one and this model regarded as seasonal analogue of Hall(1978)’s random walk model. In this study, three subitems of private final consumption expenditures, namely food-drink expenditures, semi durable and nondurable goods expenditures and service expenditures, are analyzed to see whether data is consistent with the Osborn (1988) model for Turkish case. When there were no seasonal deterministic trends in regression equations, estimation results clearly rejected the Osborn (1988) model. However, after these terms were added to regression equations and restricted appropriately, estimation results have varied with respect to investigated series. In this case, The Osborn (1988) model was found to be consistent with Turkish data for service expenditures

seasonality ,

periodic unit root ,

periodic autoregressive models ,